Deloitte: Holiday Retail Sales Expected to Increase 4% to 6%

E-commerce holiday sales projected to grow 12.8% to 14.3%, compared to 2021 season

Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 4% and 6% in 2022, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.

Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.45 to $1.47 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2021, holiday sales grew by 15.1% in the same period.

Deloitte also forecasts e-commerce sales will grow by 12.8% to 14.3%, year-over-year, during the 2022-2023 holiday season. This will likely result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $260 billion and $264 billion this season.

“The lower projected growth for the 2022 holiday season reflects the slowdown in the economy this year. Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending. However, we anticipate more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster. He added “inflation will also help to raise dollar sales, although retailers will see less growth in sales volume.”

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“As inflation weighs on consumer demand, we can expect consumers to continue to shift how they spend their holiday budget this upcoming season,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader. “Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximize their spending. Retailers across channels who remain aligned with consumer demand and offer convenient and affordable options can be well positioned for success this season.”

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Note to editors:

Deloitte is forecasting a 4% to 6% increase in 2022 holiday sales compared with the same period in 2021. Retail sales between November 2021 and January 2022 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 15.1% and totaled $1.39 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Deloitte is forecasting a 12.8% to 14.3% increase in 2022 holiday e-commerce sales compared with the same period in 2021. E-commerce sales between November 2021 and January 2022 (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 8.4% totaling $231 billion.