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More Than 30% Of U.S. Consumers Expected to Shop Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale, Numerator Reports

Amazon Primed to Set New Records, Capturing $1 in Every $5 Spent on Consumer Goods on Day of Event

Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has released new findings on the impact of Amazon Prime sales days on consumer behavior and market share in advance of Amazon’s inaugural Prime Early Access Sale. Overall, the event is expected to set new records in household penetration and average household spend, capture additional holiday CPG categories, and continue to drive Amazon’s growth in CPG market share.

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Key findings include:

  • Nearly one in three Americans will shop this Prime sale. Amazon deal events continue to grow in household penetration. On Prime Day 2022, 29.9% of Americans shopped compared to 27.4% in 2021 and 27% in 2020.
  • Average household spend will likely pass the $200 mark for the first time.  Household spend grew to $197.92 during Prime Day 2022, up from $156.69 on Prime Day 2021. Prime Day 2020, which was held in October 2020, saw higher household spend at $158.55, likely a result of its pre-holiday timing. Between the potential for capturing early holiday spend, and higher prices due to inflation, average household spend is likely to surpass $200 at the Prime Early Access Sale.
  • Consumers will start their holiday shopping, but it’s not likely to cannibalize Amazon’s holiday traffic. During the Fall 2020 Prime Day sale, 29% of consumers said they used the event for holiday shopping – and 90% planned to shop on Amazon again in advance of the holidays.
  • Prime Day is increasingly a consumer goods holiday and is poised to capture new categories this holiday season. Amazon sales events were historically known for their consumer electronics sales, but on Prime Day 2022, 17% of shoppers bought groceries, and household and grocery items landed in the top items purchased for the first time. If deals are available, consumers are likely to use this Prime event to stock up on Halloween candy, Thanksgiving non-perishables and holiday baking ingredients.
    • When Prime Day was held in October in 2020, Amazon saw share growth for Halloween Candy, Variety Packs (Chips), Trail Mix, Nutrition & Wholesome Bars, Popcorn, Chips and Packaged Cookies compared to both the prior month and October 13-14, 2021 (accounting for seasonality).
  • Amazon’s CPG share skyrockets 4-5x on Prime Day every year. In 2022, Amazon’s CPG share was 4.9% in the month before Prime Day, 5.6% the month of Prime Day, and 21.7% on Prime Day itself – accounting for more than $1 in every $5 of U.S. consumer goods spend. Day-of CPG share continues to grow with each subsequent Prime Day (19.1% on Prime Day 2021 and 18.3% on Prime Day 2020).
  • Prime Day pulls share from both smaller retailers and major retailers. On Prime Day 2022, smaller retailers collectively saw an -11.8 point CPG share decline vs. the month prior. Walmart saw a total store decline of -3.0 points, followed by Kroger (-1.5 points) and Costco (-1.0 points). Target, which was running their Deal Days event at the same time, saw a modest share boost of +0.5 points on Prime Day.

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Numerator TruView omnichannel share data is sourced from the 1 million+ household Numerator Measurement Panel. Date range for this analysis includes 1/1/2019 – 7/31/2022, with yearly and monthly views, and daily breakouts for Prime Days 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Sectors covered include Grocery, Household Products, Health & Beauty, Pet, and Baby. 

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