New AI-powered metric quantifies pricing uncertainty to help fixed income professionals interpret predictive prices with greater clarity
SOLVE, the leading provider of pre-trade data and predictive pricing for fixed income securities markets, announced the launch of Confidence Score for Corporate Bonds, an AI-powered metric designed to enhance SOLVE Px™ by quantifying pricing uncertainty on a standardized 1–10 scale. The new capability adds a transparent, interpretable layer to predictive pricing, helping fixed income professionals better assess the reliability of predicted prices across more than 250,000 investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds.
Confidence Score translates model uncertainty into an intuitive framework, where higher scores indicate greater confidence in the predicted price. SOLVE makes these Confidence Scores available to the market through feeds as well as the SOLVE Quotes Web application (SQW). When used via SQW, scores are color-coded into three categories, Low (1–2), Medium (3–6), and High (7–10), allowing users to quickly distinguish between varying levels of pricing confidence. The metric is available for Bid, Mid, and Offer predictions across SOLVE Px workflows. Users can readily see Confidence Scores for individual Px predictions in every module within SQW and also filter Confidence Score results by category or numeric value to focus workflows on the level of confidence required.
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By pairing every predicted price with a measurable indicator of uncertainty, Confidence Score helps clients better understand price quality, particularly in markets where liquidity and price discovery vary widely. Corporate bonds with recent trading activity, active quoting, and strong comparables may generate higher confidence scores, while less liquid securities may naturally reflect lower confidence. Importantly, Confidence Score is applied across SOLVE Px’s full corporate bond coverage, including highly illiquid bonds and across trades of all sizes, not just larger, more actively traded blocks. This transparency allows teams to adjust their analytics, workflows, and decision making by considering the potential risk associated with a given price prediction, thereby reducing ambiguity in day-to-day workflows, and supporting defensible pricing decisions across trading, risk management, and analytics.
“After bringing Confidence Score to predictive trade pricing for munis, we’re extending the same unprecedented clarity to predictive trade pricing for corporate credit, including bonds and trade sizes that have historically been harder to price with confidence,” said Eugene Grinberg, Co-Founder and CEO of SOLVE. “This is part of SOLVE’s continued push to make AI-driven pricing more transparent, more actionable, and easier to operationalize across trading, risk, and analytics.”
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Confidence Score is currently available across SOLVE Px delivery methods and workflows, including:
- SOLVE Px API Endpoints: The confidence Score field is included in responses for both predict-by-identifier and historical-by-identifier endpoints for Bid, Mid, and Offer.
- SOLVE Px Excel Add-In Functions: The existing Px Score attribute is now populated for Corporate Bonds using SPX and SPXH, available independently for Bid, Mid, and Offer.
- SOLVE Px Feeds: The SolvePx Score field is now populated for Corporate Bonds via SOLVE Px FTP and FIX feed products.
The launch of Confidence Score for Corporate Bonds builds on SOLVE’s continued expansion of its predictive pricing capabilities, following last year’s rollout of Confidence Score for municipal bonds and the launch of SOLVE Px™ for the corporate bond market. Together, these enhancements reflect SOLVE’s broader effort to bring greater transparency, consistency, and decision-ready intelligence to fixed income pricing.
