ZeroSum Automotive Inventory Data and Sales Forecasts February 2022
The ZeroSum Market First Report is the automotive industry’s first source to predict month-end vehicle movement, providing vital supply and demand trend data to automotive marketers and dealers. ZeroSum uses predictive modeling to accurately estimate new vehicle inventory, pricing trends, and market share.
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New and Used Vehicle Inventory
As inventory shortages have continued over the last two years, ZeroSum has been steadily monitoring the impact on the automotive industry. The month of February began with 4% fewer new vehicles on the ground than in January, a decrease of 42,957 units available for sale . When compared with 2021, the start of February 2022 is down 62% year-over-year, a decrease of over 1.6 million units. MAZDA had the largest increase in available new inventory, gaining over 45% month-over-month. Audi, Mitsubishi, and Jaguar also showed strong month-over-month gains despite the continued shortage of essential manufacturing parts.
While new vehicle inventory was down at the beginning of the month, used vehicle inventory increased 1.7% month-over-month, with an increase of 29,804 units available for sale . However, February 2022 used car inventory is still down 3.5% year-over-year. Audi showed the biggest gain in used vehicle inventory, adding 14.99% more used cars available.
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New and Used Inventory Movement
ZeroSum’s MarketAI platform tracks inventory as it leaves dealers’ lots in order to predict monthly sales outcomes. February is forecast to finish 9.5% below January in total new units sold and 7% below January in used units sold (See Figure 2 and Figure 6). MAZDA is positioned to make some of the biggest month-over-month new car sales gains while Audi is set to make some of the most used car sales gains.
Additionally, MarketAI tracks vehicles added to dealers’ inventory, in order to predict manufacturer production and overall inventory supply. 8.5% fewer new vehicles are forecast to be added to dealers’ inventory in February than January while 8.3% fewer used vehicles are forecast .
By combining inventory moved and inventory added, MarketAI also tracks turn rates of inventory across the industry. The average turn rate of new inventory is projected to be 88% in February, while used inventory turn rate is projected to be at 83%.
