IRI Holiday Research Predicts Disrupted Consumer Behaviors And CPG Opportunities Based On Ongoing COVID-19 Impact

The Grinch arrived early this year in the form of COVID-19, and consumers are dramatically rethinking their holiday plans as a result of new surges in cases and the onset of colder weather in much of the country. People will hold smaller gatherings if they gather at all; adapt their purchasing behavior by buying more turkey cuts versus whole birds and avoid annual celebrations at restaurants (although they will continue to take out). These are among IRI’s new research findings, released today, “Home for the Holidays.” IRI^® is a global leader in innovative solutions and services for consumer, retail, and media companies.

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Talking Turkey About Thanksgiving

IRI projects turkey sales for Thanksgiving to be strong, with an emphasis on smaller whole birds or cuts. Turkey and roasting meats have enjoyed a sales boom during the pandemic, with the most robust growth among younger and lower-income shoppers.

For Thanksgiving, just 29% of consumers will host or attend a meal with extended family who does not live with them, down from 48% last year, according to IRI’s new research. Also, 34% will prepare a meal just for themselves or their household this year, up from 27% last year. The median number of people sitting at the Thanksgiving dinner table this year will be five, down from eight in 2019.

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Foodservice and Restaurants Continue to Feel the Pinch

Foodservice, such as food purchased to consume away from home and food purchased to consume at home, tend to spike in calendar Q4 of each year. This year, food away from home sales will continue to show weakness as cold weather drives consumers indoors while bars and restaurants continue to face social distancing restrictions. As a result of this trend and consumers’ desire to indulge after a difficult 2020, food at home will show stronger sales, giving CPG retailers and brands an additional opportunity to inspire creating at-home celebrations.

The typical spike in restaurant visits will not materialize this year. Restaurant visits have rebounded somewhat and are currently at roughly 50% of their October 2019 level, up from a nadir of 16.5% in April.

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