The surge in online shopping caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to add £5.3bn to UK ecommerce sales this year to make a total of £78.9bn. This is according to analysts at Edge Retail Insight, the global trend forecasting arm of retail insights firm Edge by Ascential, who have updated all pre-existing forecasts to account for the significant long-term impact of COVID-19 on consumer shopping behaviours and preferences.
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Amazon is expected to benefit the most from this surge in demand for online retail, adding an extra £2bn in UK sales, totalling £31.1bn by the end of 2020, up from analysts’ initial £29.1bn prediction prior to the pandemic.
Tesco is expected to generate the most revenue in 2020, with forecasted gross sales rising by an extra £1.7bn to reach a total of £61.1bn, up from forecasts of £59.4bn prior to the pandemic. This is followed by Sainsbury’s, which will add an extra £0.6bn in sales to reach £31bn (from £30bn) by the end of 2020.
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Analysts at Edge Retail Insight have also upgraded the UK outlook for the following retail channels:
- Ecommerce: Online sales are now expected to grow from initial predictions of 11% to 19% in 2020, reaching £78.9bn, this is up from £66.3bn in 2019.
- Grocery hyper-stores: A revised growth of 3.3%, up from -0.8%, as a result of increased home cooking, following the cautious reopening of eateries and restaurants. This will now account for £82.7bn in sales.
- Pharmacies and health retailers: Health stores will see a significant boost, up from initial predictions of -4.6% to a growth of 4.0% in 2020. This will account for £13.8bn in sales, as conscious consumers continue to look after their health post-pandemic.
- Discounters (9.2% up from 8.7%) and neighbourhood stores and supermarkets (3.0% up from -0.4%) will experience modest growth at £28.9bn and £21.1bn respectively. Cash and carry operators (up 8.0% from 7.6%) will see a small increase.
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