Growth rates slowing as online shopping matures
E-commerce sales for all channels in the US are forecast to advance 7.7% per annum in nominal terms through 2026, according to E-Commerce: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. Retailers will benefit from the continued popularity of shopping from home, as well as increasing disposable personal income levels and consumer access to credit. Brick-and-mortar retailers will continue using e-commerce to augment sales and give consumers the option of picking up or returning items at stores, representing ongoing efforts to perfect their omnichannel strategies. Sales originating from mobile devices (sometimes called “m-commerce”) are projected to climb at an above average pace due to increasing popularity and the convenience of shopping from a mobile phone. However, sales are expected to slow from historical rates as e-commerce advances along the adoption curve. Faster advances will be restrained by an elevated 2021 base year, caused by a surge in e-commerce spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. Older consumers, who may be less comfortable using internet shopping methods, and those without reliable internet access will remain a constraint on channel penetration.
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These and other key insights are featured in E-Commerce: United States. This report forecasts to 2022 and 2026 US e-commerce retail sales in nominal US dollars for electronic shopping and mail-order houses. Sales are segmented by merchandise line in terms of:
- apparel and accessories
- electronics and appliances
- furniture and furnishings
- multimedia and software
- health, beauty, and drug
- recreation goods
- food and beverages
- office equipment and supplies
- other merchandise such as collectibles, hardware, and jewelry
- nonmerchandise receipts such as advertising, commissions, customer support, and shipping and handling
This report also shows e-commerce retail sales segmented by type of establishment as follows:
- e-shopping and mail-order houses
- motor vehicle dealers and parts stores
- clothing and accessory stores
- food and beverage stores
- general hardware stores
- recreation goods stores
- electronics and appliances stores
- other establishments such as furniture and home furnishings stores, health and personal care stores, and general merchandise stores
To illustrate historical trends, e-commerce retail sales, total retail sales, and the various segments are provided in annual series from 2011 to 2021.
For the purposes of this report, e-commerce refers to sales arranged over the internet, including mobile (m-commerce). Payment may or may not be made via the internet. This report excludes business-to-business (B2B) sales of new and used merchandise, as well as spending on multimedia streaming services. Electronic activities of the agriculture, construction, and mining sectors, as well as non-merchant wholesalers and parts of the service sector, are also excluded.
This report includes the results of a proprietary national online consumer survey of US adults (age 18+). The Freedonia Focus Reports National Online Consumer Survey has a sample size of approximately 1,799, screened for response quality, and representative of the US population on the demographic measures of age, gender, geographic region, race/ethnicity, household income, and the presence/absence of children in the household.