Numerator Launches Vaccinated Shopper Behavior Tracker

Online and In-Store Sales Up 12% with Vaccinated Consumers; Gas & Convenience Leads, up 33%

Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has launched a Vaccinated Shopper Behavior Tracker to study the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on consumer shopping behavior. The tracker showcases the weekly, cross-channel purchase behavior of more than 7,000 early vaccinated shoppers, and spans 13 channels, including online. Vaccinated shoppers are defined as having been fully vaccinated by March 1st of this year, based on a survey fielded to Numerator’s entire 100k (static) consumer OmniPanel.

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Key findings include:

• 3 in 5 consumers have been or plan to be vaccinated. At the time of the study, 8% of consumers were fully vaccinated and ~50% intended to get vaccinated when they become eligible.
• 2 in 5 consumers are not fully convinced of the vaccine. 20% did not plan to get vaccinated, and 22% were unsure about whether they would get the vaccine.

The first wave of fully vaccinated consumers skews older, higher income, Asian, and White/Caucasian: 

• 23% are over 65 years of age (Boomers and the Greatest Gen), 15% are Boomers under 65, 35% Gen X, 26% Millennials, and 2% Gen Z.
• Compared to the general population, early vaccinated consumers are 11% more likely to be Boomers or older, 31% more likely to be high income, 25% more likely to be Asian, and 7% more likely to be White/Caucasian.
• This group is composed largely of essential workers. Early vaccinated consumers are nearly five times more likely to be doctors or physicians, and twice as likely to work in law enforcement or emergency services.
• Retail channels that over-index with the early vaccinated include Club (+8%), Online (+8%), and Drug (+7%).

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Observed shopping behaviors among early vaccinated shoppers, as compared to the average week in 2020, include:

SALES

• The in-store sales index has been rising steadily among vaccinated shoppers since the beginning of the year, up 12% vs. 2020 for the week ending March 14. Dips in week 4 and 7 of 2021 were likely impacted by significant winter weather disruptions.
• The online sales index for vaccinated shoppers is also up 12% vs. 2020 for the same period, indicating that in-store increases won’t necessarily result in online decreases.
• The Gas & Convenience channel has the highest sales increase versus 2020 at +33%, showing ongoing increases as this channel reopens and vaccinated shoppers start diversifying their shopping again.
• Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) sales see a clear uptick starting in late February (+18% for most recent week), as vaccinated consumers become more comfortable eating outside of the home.

TRIPS

• In-store shopping trips rise above 2020 averages for the first time in late February 2021 as vaccinated consumers diversify shopping.
• Similar to sales, overall in-store shopping trips and QSR visits are up among vaccinated consumers (+4% and +6%, respectively).
• Online orders hold steady vs. 2020 averages — even with an increase in in-store trips.

HOUSEHOLDS

• The number of households shopping in-store remains steady in 2021, on average up 5% over 2020.
• Club (+12%) and Gas & Convenience (+7%) see more dramatic increases in total households shopping in 2021.

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