According to The NPD Group’s new forecast, revenue for the U.S. B2B technology channel will see a 2% decline in 2022 as volume normalization occurs across a number of 2021 high-growth categories. But a return to growth is just around the corner. NPD’s Future of B2B Technology forecast expects revenue gains of 3% in 2023 with channel sales topping $106 billion.
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Notebooks, Chromebooks, and many work-from-home categories (e.g. USB cameras, monitors, keyboards) that saw tremendous demand over the last two years are expected to experience a return to more normal sales levels in 2022, contributing to the 2% overall decline. Slowing sales for Chromebooks will result from a return to in-person learning, as administrators pause to better understand usage, utilization, and the general status of the millions of deployed devices. Sales of software and cloud infrastructure categories are forecasted to gain steam in 2022 driven by digital transformation efforts begun during the pandemic with a focus on remote workforce security, continuity, and productivity.
“The pivot to working from home that began in 2020 jumpstarted the momentum around digital transformation and that will continue to be a significant driver of future technology spend,” said Mike Crosby, director and B2B technology industry analyst for NPD. “Changes made to business operations are also likely to drive spend as projects utilizing emerging technologies become more mainstream, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, IoT, and automation.”
The expected 3% gains in 2023 will result from continuing software and cloud growth based on digital transformation initiative maturity and expansion, as well as technology refreshes as users look to gain a productivity advantage through improvements in technology, rather than via simple device replacement.
“Unencumbered by the market challenges of the previous two years, 2023 has the potential to be a year of strong gains with businesses leveraging the efficiencies and scalability digital transformation provides,” said Crosby.
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