Today, Coupa Software (NASDAQ: COUP) published the findings from its Coupa Business Spend Index (BSI), Q3 2020 Outlook. The Coupa BSI analyzes billions of dollars of aggregated and anonymized business spend decisions, which serves as an early indicator of macroeconomic health over the next three to six months. The Q3 Outlook revealed that business spend sentiment recovered modestly (an increase of 9.6 percent), suggesting that while current confidence is still well below trend, businesses are showing early signs of optimism around the economic outlook.
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Following a quarter of contracted corporate spending, the Coupa BSI shows that businesses began adjusting to the “new normal” last quarter. Though still cautious about the global economic outlook, sector data indicates that financial services, high tech, and to a lesser degree, retail showed slight improvement quarter-over-quarter.
“The Q3 BSI indicates that businesses are showing early signs of improvement after making drastic spending cuts in the beginning of the pandemic, likely in response to an overcorrection and loosening of lockdowns in some states,” said Jeff Collins, chief economist at Coupa. “However, despite the slight rebound, our analysis indicates that confidence in the economy is still low, suggesting businesses will remain cautious for at least the next three to six months.”
What to Expect in the Coming Months
- Businesses Overall: Spend data indicates that overall, business spend sentiment recovered modestly from the sharp drop in the previous quarter, but is still below the trend line.
- Financial Services: Business spend sentiment for financial services, which dropped last quarter, improved significantly. This was likely due to strong intervention by the U.S. Federal Government as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank.
- Health and Life Sciences: Spend sentiment for health and life sciences declined, slipping below the trend line. Despite the drop, sentiment for the sector is likely to grow at or near trend for the next three months.
- High Tech: Spend sentiment for high tech held steady quarter-over-quarter despite the pandemic, and is likely to contribute modestly to GDP [growth] for the next three to six months.
- Manufacturing: Spend sentiment for manufacturing declined. As a result, contribution of the sector to GDP is likely to decline over the next three to six months.
- Retail: Retail saw a modest improvement in spend sentiment this quarter; however, the sector is still significantly below the trend line, likely the result of mass layoffs, reduced household income, and economic insecurity.
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