Ecommerce Shakes up the Top Five Retailers in the US: New Report by Edge by Ascential

Edge by Ascential, whose technology-driven products power brands to win in digital commerce, released its annual 2022 United States Retail Landscape and Go-to-Market Planning Report, which shows that ecommerce will continue to be the largest driver of retail growth in the US. The report predicts that Amazon will overtake Walmart to become the largest retailer in the US by 2024, and add more than $294 billion in US sales between 2021 and 2026. By 2026, Edge by Ascential predicts that the top three retailers in the US will be Amazon, Walmart and Costco, with 14.9%, 12.7% and 4.4% of the retailer market share, respectively.

“Inflationary pressures continue to cut into retailer margins, both in the US and abroad, while rising labor rates, increased material costs and higher fuel prices across all supply chains impact suppliers, retailers and consumers,” said Deren Baker, CEO, Edge by Ascential. “Despite these challenges, data from Edge by Ascential shows that ecommerce will continue to be the largest driver of retail growth over the next few years in the US and worldwide. Amazon has always taken advantage of its head start as a digital-first platform and has been a pioneer of almost all the growth levers associated with platform-based retail from ‘subscribe and save’ through Prime membership to the evolving media and marketing services Amazon offers to brands. Therefore, it’s not a huge surprise that by gross merchandise value (GMV) sales, our AI-powered forecasting software on Edge Retail Insight anticipates Amazon to overtake Walmart as the largest retailer in the US by 2024.”

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“Inflationary pressures continue to cut into retailer margins, both in the US and abroad, while rising labor rates, increased material costs and higher fuel prices across all supply chains impact suppliers, retailers and consumers”

Some key findings from the Report include:

• Ecommerce is the #1 driver of retail growth in the US – and will top $1 trillion by the end of 2022
  • In 2021, US online sales reached $907.7 billion, up from $787 billion in 2020 – representing 15.2% growth.
  • This was 2 x the growth of overall US retail sales, which grew by 7.6% in 2021.
  • We anticipate ecommerce will account for 30.5% of total retail sales by 2026, up from 24.6% in 2021 and will be the world’s biggest ecommerce market after China.

• Amazon will overtake Walmart to become the largest retailer in the US by 2024; Costco will also grow its share
  • By 2026, Amazon is expected to hold almost 15% (14.9%) of retail market share in the US. Walmart’s share will shrink to 12.7%, from 13.2% in 2021.
  • Costco will become the third-largest retailer in the US, and will increase its market share from 3.8% in 2021 to 4.4% by 2026.
  • Home Depot will become the 4th largest retailer in the US, with a market share increase from 3.7% in 2021 to 3.9% by 2026.

• Online grocery sales will add $34.7 billion in US sales between 2021-2026
  • In 2021, online edible grocery sales in the US reached $54.8 billion, up 117% on 2019
  • As of 2021, online edible grocery penetration in the US stood at 6.5% – with about 50% of that attributed to Walmart, Target, Kroger and Costco, all of which accelerated their edible grocery ecommerce presence and capability during the pandemic years.
  • Edge by Ascential forecasts online edible grocery share to make up 8.8% of all ecommerce sales by 2026.

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Methodology:

• Data and insights come from the Edge by Ascential 2022 United States Retail Landscape and Go-to-Market Planning Report, available to subscribers of our market-leading data, analytics and curated content platform Edge Retail Insight.
• The report was created with data from Edge by Ascential’s proprietary analytics tool, Retail Market Monitor, which can analyze the whole retail ecosystem by sector, geography, channel and chain retailer and identify growth opportunities for retailers and brands.
• Retail sales referenced are calculated using Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), a standard used to measure the size of a third-party marketplace. It is calculated by multiplying the number of products sold by the price at which each product was sold over a given time period.
• Retail sales data includes online and offline operations, and only includes chain retailers, of which Edge Retail Insight covers almost 2,500 worldwide.
• Edible grocery refers to ambient, chilled, fresh and frozen food, soft drinks and alcohol.