Agentic commerce is beginning to move from forecast to real-world use in some markets. In China, AI agents are already completing purchases at meaningful scale, and analysts now put the global opportunity at $3–5 trillion by 2030.
The debate is shifting as early examples show AI shopping agents completing transactions in some markets. According to NielsenIQ, a leading consumer intelligence company, its global report The Commerce Revolution: Where East Meets West points to agentic commerce moving from experiment toward everyday infrastructure. According to Ant Group, Alipay AI Pay processed more than 120 million transactions during the week of February 5–11, 2026, while Adobe Analytics reported that traffic from generative AI sources to US retail websites increased by 1,200% between July 2024 and February 2025.
Agentic commerce is beginning to move from forecast to real-world use in some markets. In China, AI agents are already completing purchases at meaningful scale, and analysts now put the global opportunity at $3–5 trillion by 2030.
This is the second release in NielsenIQ’s mid-year read of the global commerce shift, building on evidence that retail’s center of gravity has moved East. AI is emerging as the connective layer across commerce formats—from live and social to quick commerce. Yet NielsenIQ’s own consumer data shows a clear gap between AI capability and shopper trust. While consumers are increasingly comfortable using AI to research and recommend, few are ready to let it complete purchases.
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“While much of the West is still debating whether AI will shop for us, in parts of Asia it already is, quietly completing purchases at a scale most boardrooms haven’t registered,” said Emilie Darolles, President West Europe at NielsenIQ. “But the real story is not just what AI can do — it’s what shoppers will allow it to do. Consumers are increasingly happy to let AI research and recommend, yet very few are ready to let it buy. The next phase of agentic commerce will be won by the brands that earn enough trust to be chosen by both the consumer and the agent.”
The “must-know” numbers
- Agents are already transacting at scale. According to Ant Group, Alipay AI Pay processed more than 120 million transactions during the week of February 5–11, 2026. The report also cites market data that Alibaba’s Qwen assistant reached 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch.
- The money is following. Analysts size the global agentic commerce opportunity at $3–5 trillion by 2030 (McKinsey), with agents projected to drive $190–385 billion (roughly 10–20%) of US e-commerce by 2030 (Morgan Stanley).
- Discovery is shifting to machines. Adobe Analytics reported that traffic from generative AI sources to US retail websites increased by 1,200% between July 2024 and February 2025. Adobe also found that visitors arriving from generative AI sources showed stronger engagement, including more pages per visit and lower bounce rates, even though conversion still trailed more established traffic sources.
- Autonomy is still rare. NielsenIQ data shows AI is reshaping the “messy middle”: around 34% of consumers use AI to research products and 23% to summarize reviews, yet only about 8% have let AI complete a purchase for them. Influence is running well ahead of automation.
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For brands, the shift from a human funnel to an agent-mediated one changes the rules of visibility. When an AI agent shortlists three products, the traditional path from impression to click to cart collapses. Brands with incomplete or machine-unreadable product data risk becoming invisible to the systems that increasingly decide what gets bought.
But the East–West story cuts both ways. China is proving the demand side (agents at consumer scale) while the West builds the trust and measurement rails that make agentic commerce safe for high-consideration and everyday purchases alike. The winners will be the brands that prepare now: structuring product data, earning their place in AI consideration sets, and measuring performance in a world where the shopper may be a machine.
